Author: Hannah Wind
Location: Germany Date: Wednesday, 18 September, 2024
Source: Retrieved from https://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/news-events/open-source-intelligence-osint-and-ai-the-informational-pivot-of-intelligence-analysis/.
SUMMARY
Open-source Intelligence (OSINT) is defined as “intelligence produced from publicly available sources that is collected, exploited, and disseminated in a timely manner to an appropriate audience.” While secret services around the world have used this technology for several decades, OSINT only became publicly spread more recently. But why do we need OSINT? How can OSINT contribute to our understanding of situations that we are not personally part of, such as what happens on the ground in war zones?
BACKGROUND
I recently stumbled over an old university assignment of mine that I do not only find interesting but also very important to read in current times. In the following, I am sharing excerpts of said assignment.
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On July 17, 2014, flight MH17 was shot down over Eastern Ukraine, causing the death of all people on board. While Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of having destroyed the airplane, ‘bellingcat,’ an investigative journalism group specialising in open-source intelligence (OSINT), later published reports proving that a Russian Brigade’s Buk had demolished the plane. Based on open-source evidence, such as the Dutch Safety Board’s report on the crash and videos filmed by civilians, the journalists found that Russia manipulated the satellite images of the incident, thereby altering the crash’s cause and making it seem like Ukraine was responsible. Considering this case, how can OSINT change our understanding of what happens on the ground, and more particularly, in war situations?
What is OSINT?
OSINT is defined as “intelligence produced from publicly available sources that is collected, exploited, and disseminated in a timely manner to an appropriate audience.” In contrast to reports based on on-site observation, OSINT reports use a more horizontal approach by gathering information through evaluating sources “spread out across the entire community,” like YouTube videos, CCTV footage, satellite images, or Twitter. While OSINT had been a secret service tool for a long time, driven by technological advancement, it became an information tool for the public, empowering the people by providing them with new narratives about war situations, thereby altering their understanding of what is happening on the ground.
Unravel Fake News Through Cross-Referencing
The abovementioned uncovering of manipulated images in connection to the MH17 crash depicts that OSINT enables us to unravel fake news. Fake news is common to be spread by governments through the media during times of conflict. War is, therefore, not only fought on the ground but also through the media.
By comparing and contrasting images and statements regarding conflicts, OSINT enables big media companies and private individuals to evaluate the truth of war-related (governmental) statements. While some information sources might be bribed or oppressed by the government to spread lies and myths as a propaganda tool, OSINT can alter the ‘blurred images’ of the happenings. By providing more transparency through horizontal evaluation, OSINT, therefore, helps reputable news channels and people who are not on-site to understand what is happening in reality.
Document War Crimes
Moreover, OSINT can provide credible evidence to hold those who commit war crimes accountable. For instance, in light of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Russia asserted that it had nothing to do with killing civilians in Bucha, a city near Kyiv, in March 2022. While Russia claimed that cadavers on the streets had only been placed there by Ukrainian authorities after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the area,the analysis of satellite images and CCTV footage proves that many civilians were already killed when Russia’s military controlled the town and had been lying on the streets for weeks.
Develop Situational Awareness
Finally, OSINT can help create situational awareness, meaning that we enhance our ability to understand how different factors play into the development of the war and thus lead to a certain outcome. For instance, OSINT enabled a professor in Monterey, California, Dr. J. Lewis, to know about the Russian invasion of Ukraine before it was officially announced. At 3.15 am Russian local time, roughly three hours before Putin announced the invasion, Lewis spotted ‘traffic jam’ on Google Maps on the road from Belgorod, Russia, to the Ukrainian border.Observing that “it starts exactly where we saw a Russian formation of armour and IFV/APCs show up yesterday,” he concluded that “someone’s on the move.” Dr. Lewis and his research team, hence, were probably the first ones to know about the invasion, even though they were 6000 miles away from the happenings on the ground.
OSINT, thus, enables us to grasp the big outcome of multiple smaller incidents in ‘real time’ by providing us with the full picture of a specific situation by shedding light on particular indicators leading up to the happening. Thereby, it alters our understanding of what is happening as we are able to connect and contextualise distinct events instead of seeing them as separate actions.
REFERENCES
This article is based on an unpublished assignment I wrote in the past titled “How can Open-Source Intelligence Change our Understanding of What Happens on the Ground During War?” – Hannah Wind, 2022.
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